Readers of this newsletter series will undoubtedly know that we are very skeptical about any official inflation numbers, and the latest inflation number of 3% is no different.
In previous newsletters, we have highlighted several things. 1. The official inflation numbers are massaged for certain effects using techniques such as Substitution and Hedonic which makes the true inflation numbers uncertain. 2. Inflation is actually the increase in money supply, which has been increasing for about two decades now. 3. Even during the great inflation crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s inflation went down to low single digits before spiking back up to new highs because the underlying factors were still increasing.
We would like to add here also that there’s a difference between headline and core consumer price index (CPI). Core CPI takes out food and energy, arguably two of the main three things we need to survive – which is shelter, food, and energy. Core CPI is currently over 4%. Why is that? This is because food and energy prices can be controlled by regulations. When you add in all of the massaging with the control of food and energy price you can get the Headline CPI number to be lower because the controllable food and energy prices will bring it down. That being said, This is no consolation to the average person because they still see their grocery prices going up. Indeed, the official numbers and reality do not align.
Our recommendation regarding the latest CPI numbers is to be very cautious based on the factors laid out above. We still predict that inflation will remain elevated with highs and relative lows for the remainder of this decade. Why is that? The simple answer is, the underlying factors that lead to inflation are either still there and in many cases are increasing and plans are in place that will increase them even further.
In this week’s full article, we share some insights into what this new headline CPI or 3% means, and whether or not we should be breathing a sigh of relief at this time.
Before you breathe a sigh of relief, however. Let us just note that on Wednesday, July 26, 2023, The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the central bank’s key overnight rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Ask yourself, why is it that inflation is “coming down” but the Fed is still raising interest rates to fight inflation?
For further reading on inflation, please see also: ‘3 Ways Aviation Businesses Are Coping With Inflation’, ‘Inflation: Higher costs and their effects on Flight Schools’, ‘Inflation and Aviation’, ‘How The Aviation Industry Needs To Look At Inflation’, ‘Understanding Inflation’, ‘Money and Recessions.’, ‘Breaking Down Inflation.’ , ‘Inflation: Here we go again…’, ‘Stagflation: Should the Aviation Industry be Concerned?’ ‘Aviation: Producer and Consumer Prices’, ‘Aviation: Inflation, Again…’, and ‘Aviation; Inflation ‘Slowed’, So Why Are Prices Still High?’
The recent University of Michigan survey’s reading of one-year price inflation expectations rose to 3.4 percent in July from 3.3 percent in June. The five-year outlook also increased to 3.1 percent from 3.0 percent in the previous month.
There is a mainstream narrative that is growing all over the financial media: We must accept three percent annual price inflation as a success at combating rising prices. This is enough to pivot and return to monetary easing. It is not.
Three percent annual price inflation for ten years is a loss of purchasing power of the currency of 34 percent after what is already a disastrous inflationary environment.
There is nothing positive about rising long-term price inflation expectations. It is not just the confirmation of a terrible destruction of real wages and deposit savings, but a huge incentive to maintaining the least efficient and unproductive parts of the economy. Price inflation is not just a hidden tax created by bloated government spending financed with artificially created currency, it is also a hidden subsidy to obsolescence and a huge disincentive to innovation and technological transformation.
It is not a surprise to read so many market participants demanding more quantitative easing. Monetary expansion has been a huge driver of market bubbles, and many investors want the “bubble of everything” to return, even if it means weaker economic growth, poor productivity, and declining real wages.
The evidence from the past six months is that the entire bounce of the S&P 500 has been driven by multiple expansion. While sales and earnings growth have been weak, the index now trades above twenty times earnings from seventeen times at the end of December. Furthermore, and considering the wave of downgrades of earnings’ estimates, the most bullish investors seem to require more multiple expansion, and that can only come from easing.
The reality, though, is that a three percent per annum average price inflation rate means much higher food, utilities, gas, and all essential purchases. The June price inflation reading was particularly concerning because all items except four were rising in a month when we should have seen steep declines in most prices.
Price inflation is not caused by commodities, wages, or profits. Inflation is caused by the constant increase in the quantity of currency in circulation well above real demand. The biggest consumer of newly created currency is the government, in a country where the annual deficit is not expected to be lower than $1 trillion every year until 2032. Government spending causes inflation, which is the loss of the purchasing power of the currency the central bank issues. When many said there was “no inflation” what we witnessed was massive financial asset inflation and a disproportionate increase in the prices of non-replicable goods and services. How can anyone that pays for healthcare, insurance, education, or housing truly believe that “there was no inflation”?
Remember that what they call “no inflation” was the period between 1996 and 2018, when healthcare costs rose 100 percent, childcare by 110 percent, housing by 60 percent, college tuition by 200 percent and the average price increase of non-replaceable goods and services rose by 57 percent, according to the American Enterprise Institute study collecting Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Between 2000 and 2022 the same study showed an overall price inflation of essential goods and services of 74 percent.
If “no inflation” is 74 percent price increases in the average basket of essential goods and services, imagine for a second what three percent annual official consumer price index would be for those same non-replaceable goods.
This is what is wiping out the middle class. Negative real wage growth and massive increases in the prices of the essential goods created by the constant erosion of the purchasing power of the currency.
Can economists truly ignore the destruction of the economy and the middle class only to justify more government spending or a small increase in equity and bond valuations? Maybe, but it is a bad idea to support the destruction of the economy only to see some asset values rising, particularly because those vanish with increasingly frequent and aggressive market corrections. The economy should not be driven by government spending and financial assets, but by a thriving middle class and growing productive investment. Monetary easing is not strengthening the economy. It is weakening the fabric that creates progress only to support an ever-increasing size of government.
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Author:
Daniel Lacalle
Daniel Lacalle, PhD, economist and fund manager, is the author of the bestselling books Freedom or Equality (2020), Escape from the Central Bank Trap (2017), The Energy World Is Flat (2015), and Life in the Financial Markets (2014).
He is a professor of global economy at IE Business School in Madrid.
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This article was published on the Mises Wire on July 24, 2023, with the title “Price Inflation Slowed to 3 Percent. That’s Still Far Too High”. The views expressed are the author’s, and do not constitute an endorsement by or necessarily represent the views of On Aviation™ or its affiliates.
Thank you for reading this week’s On Aviation™ full article. Do you believe that inflation will stay low for the foreseeable future? Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Remember to check out our On Aviation™ Podcast and continue the conversation on our Twitter and Instagram.
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