Readers of this newsletter series should be very familiar with the terms inflation and recession. In quite a few articles in the past, we have discussed inflation and recession in depth, giving our readers a deeper understanding of both phenomena. Providing greater insights into how they relate to each other, and how they adversely affect the aviation industry.
What about stagflation? In its article, ‘What Is Stagflation, What Causes It, and Why Is It Bad?’ Investopedia stated that:
“Stagflation is an economic cycle characterized by slow growth and a high unemployment rate accompanied by inflation. Economic policymakers find this combination particularly difficult to handle, as attempting to correct one of the factors can exacerbate another.”
The United States experienced stagflation once during the 1970s. At that time it was considered impossible to have high inflation and slow economic growth at the same time. It is also worth noting that there are some economists and market analysts that are forecasting something much worse than stagflation. Peter Schiff, economist, and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital calls this an “Inflationary Depression”, where the economy enters into a depression while at the same time experiencing high inflation. Gerald Celente, founder/director of the Trends Research Institute, calls it ‘Dragflation’, where the economy not only experiences slow growth but negative growth while experiencing high inflation. The differences between these two phenomena are subtle, but the latter is more ominous.
Why is that? This is because depression is generally defined as a recession lasting three or more years which results in a decline in gross domestic product. This does not mean that the economy is in negative growth. It simply means that the economy is below the growth that it was or should have been. There could be positive growth while still in a depression. However, with what Celente calls dragflation the economy is in negative growth. This is why dragflation is more ominous than an inflationary depression, which is still yet much more ominous than stagflation.
In this issue, we take a deeper dive into the phenomenon of stagflation discussing the possible cause, effects, And an outlook as to whether or not we will experience stagflation in the coming years.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we know we have to address that one question that might be on the readers’ minds. What does this have to do with the aviation industry and the individuals and organizations operating within? The aviation industry is one of the most fragile industries economically, is most vulnerable to an economic shock, and is most adversely affected by negative economic events. If high inflation and recessions can be devastating to the aviation industry and the individuals and entities operating within, an inflationary depression or dragflation could be even worse. Therefore, organizations and individuals alike within the aviation industry must not only have a working knowledge of these devastating phenomena but learn how to act and prepare in certain ways that mitigate their respective effects”.
For more readings on economic challenges and the aviation industry, please see also: ‘3 Ways Aviation Businesses Are Coping With Inflation’, ‘The Aviation Industry and Economic Uncertainties’, ‘Inflation: Higher costs and their effects on Flight Schools’, ‘High Interest Rates/Cost of Borrowing and Their Effects on Aviation Businesses’,’Debt: Its effects on the Aviation Industry’, ‘Economic Crisis and the Aviation Industry’, ‘Inflation and Aviation’, ‘How The Aviation Industry Needs To Look At Inflation’, ‘The Aviation Industry Must Not Mistake A Recession’, ‘Understanding Recessions’, ‘Understanding Inflation’, ‘Money and Recessions.’, ‘Breaking Down Inflation.’ , ‘Inflation: Here we go again…’’, and ‘Recession: Should we still be concerned?’
After more than $20 trillion in stimulus plans since 2020, the economy is going into stagnation with elevated inflation. Global governments announced more than $12 trillion in stimulus measures in 2020 alone, and central banks bloated their balance sheet by $8 trillion.
The result was disappointing and with long-lasting negative effects. Weak recovery, record debt, and elevated inflation. Of course, governments all over the world blamed the Ukraine invasion on the nonexistent multiplier effect of the stimulus plans, but the excuse made no sense.
Commodity prices rose from February to June 2022 and have corrected since. Even considering the negative effect of rising commodity prices in developed economies, we must acknowledge that those are positives for emerging economies and, even with that boost, the disappointing recovery led to constant downgrades of estimates.
If Keynesian multipliers existed, most developed economies would be growing strongly even discounting the Ukraine invasion impact, considering the unprecedented amount of stimulus plans approved.
Now we face a 2023 with even more disappointing estimates. According to Bloomberg economics, global growth will decline from a poor 3.2 percent in 2022 to a worrying 2.4 percent in 2023, significantly below the pre-covid-19 trend but with higher global debt. Total global debt rose by $3.3 trillion in Q1 2022 to a new record of over $305 trillion—mostly due to China and the US, according to the Institute of International Finance.
However, consensus estimates show an even worse outlook. Global growth should stall at +1.8 percent, with the euro area at zero growth and the United States at just 0.3 percent, with inflation reaching 6 percent globally, 6.1 percent in the euro area, and 4.1 percent in the United States.
Only a handful of countries are expected to reduce debt in 2023, with most nations continuing to finance bloated government spending with elevated deficits and tax hikes. A world where governments are constantly eroding the purchasing power of currencies and slashing disposable income of taxpayers with rising taxes is likely to show weaker growth trends and worsening imbalances.
The narrative all over the world is to try and convince us that past-peak but elevated inflation is “falling prices” and that everything is good when debt increases, growth stalls, and the purchasing power of salaries and savings is wiped out slowly.
There is no success in stagflation. It is a process of impoverishment that hurts the middle classes immensely while excessive government spending is never curbed.
Twenty twenty-two was the year that killed the science-fiction fallacy of modern monetary theory (MMT). Countries with monetary sovereignty like Japan or the UK found themselves in an unprecedented turmoil created by the illusion that rising deficit and debt would never cause significant problems. It only took a few rate hikes to dismantle the illusion of perennial money printing as the solution to everything.
Twenty twenty-two also showed that it is false that massive deficits are reserves that strengthen the economy. The United States suffered the most severe inflation blow in thirty years even being energy independent and benefitting from exporting natural gas and oil to the rest of the world. If the ludicrous MMT narrative was true, the United States should have not suffered any inflationary pressure.
Twenty twenty-three is expected to be the year of stagflation. Of course, most strategists are betting on inflation falling rapidly in the second part of the year, but that seems inconsistent with their estimates of deficit spending and growth.
The uncomfortable reality is that nations have created a long-lasting decline by pushing the limits on demand-side policies and government intervention.
Many celebrated the decision to use governments and central banks as the lenders of first resort instead of the last option, and what has been created is a problem with difficult solutions.
There seems to be no incentive to reduce the fiscal and monetary imbalances built through two decades, and therefore the result will be weaker growth and impoverishment.
No government wants to acknowledge the risk of central banks reducing their balance sheet. Even the most aggressive strategist fails to dare to estimate a three trillion US dollar quantitative tightening because they all know that the effects could be devastating. However, to truly normalize, central banks should reduce their balance sheet by at least five trillion US dollars. Governments and investment banks fear a gradual three trillion tightening because it can lead to a financial crisis. Those same market participants know that a five trillion tightening would undoubtedly lead to a financial crisis.
The reason why everyone expects a 2023 divided in two parts, a first half of poor data and a second where growth picks up and inflation plummets, is because market participants need to create a narrative that shows a quick fix to the above-mentioned disaster. However, there is no quick fix, there is no soft landing and there is not a chance of solving the problem by keeping elevated deficits, massive central bank balance sheets and real negative rates. If we want to look at the options, there are only two: Fixing the problem created in 2020, which means a global recession but probably not a financial crisis, or not fixing it, which means elevated inflation, weaker growth, and another bad year for risky assets which can lead to a financial crisis.
Unfortunately, when governments all over the world decided to “spend now and deal with the consequences later” in 2020 they also created the seeds of a 2008-style problem.
Daniel Lacalle, PhD, economist and fund manager, is the author of the bestselling books Freedom or Equality(2020), Escape from the Central Bank Trap (2017), The Energy World Is Flat (2015), and Life in the Financial Markets (2014). He is a professor of global economy at IE Business School in Madrid.
This article was originally published in the Mises Wire on Jan 05, 2022, with the title “2023: You Wanted Endless Stimulus, You Got Stagflation.”. The views expressed are the author’s, and do not constitute an endorsement by or necessarily represent the views of On Aviation™ or its affiliates.
Thank you for reading this week’s On Aviation™ full article. What do you believe will happen to the aviation industry if the economy enters into stagflation? Please share your thoughts in the comments below and remember to continue the conversation on our Twitterand Instagram.
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